Investments
A small collection of investment theses. Each one is a falsifiable structured belief about how a market will change and where the new underwriting layers will form. Written to be read, defended, and updated when the world disagrees.
By Chinat Yu.
Vertical Fintech · June 2026
AI spend — dollars and hours — is the most predictive underwriting signal of the next decade. The card is the cheapest way to capture it. Three sub-theses, with the largest unclaimed position sitting in consumer-side AI fintech for the student-and-builder cohort.
Vertical Fintech · June 2026 · Compact
The value-chain version. AI adoption is the new credit signal; the platforms that capture it — education, builder community, spend analytics — give the data away. The financing layer the data makes possible is empty. Research-backed, with named players at every node.
House Style
A thesis is a falsifiable structured belief about how the world will change. If a reasonable smart person could not disagree with it, it is not a thesis.
Every doc on this page lists the conditions under which it would be wrong. If you find a hole, please tell me — that is the whole point of writing them down.