Investments

Notes on where the next decade of capital is going.

A small collection of investment theses. Each one is a falsifiable structured belief about how a market will change and where the new underwriting layers will form. Written to be read, defended, and updated when the world disagrees.

By Chinat Yu.

Vertical Fintech · June 2026

The AI Spend Layer

AI spend — dollars and hours — is the most predictive underwriting signal of the next decade. The card is the cheapest way to capture it. Three sub-theses, with the largest unclaimed position sitting in consumer-side AI fintech for the student-and-builder cohort.

Macro insight + why now
Three sub-thesis bets, ranked
Comp landscape: Cherry, SoFi, Greenlight, Karat, Bill.com
Falsifiability + sourcing edge

Read the thesis

House Style

A thesis is a falsifiable structured belief about how the world will change. If a reasonable smart person could not disagree with it, it is not a thesis.

Every doc on this page lists the conditions under which it would be wrong. If you find a hole, please tell me — that is the whole point of writing them down.